Jamal Roberts meets Texas' elite run defense

Missouri's margin, Texas' giveaways

Against Power 4 opponents, Missouri is +55 in point margin, 17th nationally and fifth in the SEC. Texas is +33, 23rd nationally and seventh in the SEC.

The turnover gap is wider. Missouri is +7 in turnover margin, sixth nationally, and Texas is -6, 80th nationally and 15th in the SEC. The Tigers have taken the ball away more than they have given it up, and the Longhorns have done the opposite.

Missouri scores 28.5 points a game, 23rd nationally, and allows 19.3, 15th. Texas scores 26.2, 32nd, and allows 20.7, 21st. Penalties are close to even, with Texas flagged for 63 yards a game and Missouri for 66.

The Texas defense's best figure is efficiency. It allows success on 33.1% of opponent snaps, second nationally and first in the SEC, down from 41.1% last season.

Where it's decided

When Missouri has the ball, it brings the 14th-ranked total offense against Power 4 opponents, 435 yards a game and third in the SEC. The Tigers run for 170 yards a game, 15th nationally, but only 34.5% of their runs are successful, 69th nationally and 15th in the SEC. Roberts carries most of that load, with 190 carries and 9 touchdowns, and Xai'Shaun Edwards is second on Missouri in rushing yards with 146.

Missouri throws for 265 yards a game, 16th nationally, and succeeds on 44.0% of passes, 22nd. Texas allows 185 passing yards a game, seventh nationally, and a 34.1% success rate on passes, fourth. Donovan Olugbode is second on Missouri in receiving yards with 593 and is tied for the SEC lead with 7 touchdown catches. On third down, Missouri converts 42.9%, 24th nationally, and the Texas defense allows 32.7%, 10th.

When Texas has the ball, the offense finishes drives but struggles to sustain them. Texas has scored on every red zone trip against Power 4 opponents, first nationally, yet it converts 32.9% on third down, 15th in the SEC. In all games, the Longhorns have gone three-and-out on 24.7% of their drives, the 11th-most in FBS.

The Missouri defense ends 72.5% of drives without a score, sixth nationally, and allows points on 77.8% of red zone trips, 22nd. The Tigers allow 101 rushing yards a game, 14th, and 246 passing yards, 47th nationally and 12th in the SEC.

Arch Manning leads Texas in passing yards with 1,730, with 15 touchdowns, 7 interceptions and a 65 completion percentage. Raleek Brown leads the Longhorns in rushing yards with 452 and has 5 touchdowns, and Emmett Mosley V is second in receiving yards with 419. Missouri's Nicholas Rodriguez leads the SEC with 81 tackles, and Daeden Hopkins leads the Tigers with 7 sacks.

Colin Simmons, silent last week

Texas' Colin Simmons is tied for the FBS lead with 10 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss. He has two or more sacks in two games this season, tied for the third-most in FBS. Simmons had no stats in last week's 31-3 win over Mississippi State.

From No. 1 to two three-point losses

Texas spent four straight weeks at No. 1 and held that spot as recently as three weeks ago. The Longhorns beat No. 1 Ohio State 24-23 and won 20-17 at No. 14 Tennessee, then lost 27-24 to Oklahoma and 27-24 to Florida. Texas is 3-2 in one-score games this season.

Blake Craig's range

Missouri's Blake Craig leads FBS with 5 field goals of 50-plus yards and is tied for the SEC lead with 13 field goals. Texas' Gianni Spetic is tied for third in the SEC with 12. The Tigers come away with points on 73.9% of red zone trips against Power 4 opponents, 71st nationally and 15th in the SEC.

Missouri owns the third quarter

Missouri has outscored Power 4 opponents 62-10 in the third quarter this season. Last week at Arkansas, the Tigers extended a 29-game win streak against unranked teams that dates to 2023.

Ole Miss arrivals and a rebuilt Texas backfield

Austin Simmons transferred to Missouri from Ole Miss and leads the Tigers in passing yards with 1,935, with 16 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Cayden Lee also came from Ole Miss and leads the SEC with 730 receiving yards, on a team-high 51 catches with 5 touchdowns. Missouri returned only 21% of its 2025 passing yards after Beau Pribula's 1,946 left by transfer.

Transfers brought Texas 2,111 rushing yards from last season, including Brown's 1,141. Hollywood Smothers came from NC State and is second on Texas with 283 rushing yards. Cam Coleman came from Auburn and is tied for the SEC lead with 7 touchdown catches, and linebacker Rasheem Biles, from Pittsburgh, is tied for third in the SEC with 3 interceptions.

Steve Sarkisian has never faced Missouri in 12 seasons as an FBS head coach, and Eli Drinkwitz has never faced Texas in 8.

Missouri had 6 players drafted, 2 in the first two rounds: edge Zion Young at No. 45 to Baltimore and linebacker Josiah Trotter at No. 46 to Tampa Bay. Offensive tackle Keagen Trost also left, and the Tigers returned only 25% of their 2025 tackles for loss. Texas also had 6 drafted, including an offensive guard and a tight end, and its only pick in the first two rounds was linebacker Anthony Hill Jr., No. 60 to Tennessee.

Wingo's status unknown

Sarkisian said Oct. 31 that Ryan Wingo did not finish the Mississippi State game and that the severity of the injuries is unknown, according to the Austin American-Statesman, and he declined to elaborate. Wingo leads Texas in receiving yards with 470 and in catches with 36, with 4 touchdowns.

Drinkwitz said Oct. 27 that he does not expect offensive tackle Josh Atkins to return this season, according to Missouri Tigers On SI, after Atkins hurt his leg in spring practice and had a setback in the summer.

Texas edge Richard Wesley was listed Out on the SEC availability report for the Longhorns' last 2 games, and Missouri running back Malae Fonoti was listed Out for the Tigers' last 5.

Texas has controlled the series, and Columbia too

Texas leads the series 17-4 since 1901 in the games we hold. The last meeting was in 2017, a 33-16 Texas win at a neutral site. That Texas team went 7-6, and Michael Dickson won the Ray Guy Award and was a unanimous All-American, as was DeShon Elliott. Missouri also went 7-6 that season.

Missouri is 4-7 at home against Texas in the meetings we hold, and Texas last won in Columbia in 2009. That Texas team went 13-1, and Colt McCoy, a unanimous All-American, won the Maxwell, Walter Camp, Davey O'Brien, Johnny Unitas Golden Arm, Manning and Bobby Bowden awards. Earl Thomas and Jordan Shipley were also All-Americans for Texas, and Missouri went 8-5 that season.

Three things to watch

Roberts against the Texas run front: his 1,005 yards meet a defense that allows success on 32.0% of runs.

Missouri holding the ball: against Power 4 opponents the Tigers average 31:05 of possession, 24th nationally, to Texas' 28:59, and they score on 43.5% of drives, 25th.

Kick returns: Missouri averages 32.8 yards on 5 kick returns against Power 4 opponents, third nationally, and the Texas kick coverage allows 20.5 yards on 8 returns, 35th.