Duke's 0-22 road mark against top-5 teams

Two elite margins, one possession edge

Against Power 4 opponents, Miami is +113 in point margin, sixth nationally and second in the ACC. Duke is +111 in the same games, seventh nationally and third in the ACC. Two points separate Miami and Duke in those games.

Miami gains 461 yards a game, fifth nationally, and allows 378, 34th. Duke gains 401, 25th, and allows 302, ninth nationally and first in the ACC.

Miami holds the ball 33:29 a game, the most in the country, to Duke's 31:42, which ranks 19th. Duke gives back more on flags, 72 penalty yards a game and 80th nationally, against 55 for Miami.

Where it's decided

When Miami has the ball, the second-best scoring offense in the country against Power 4 opponents, 39.4 points a game, meets the second-best scoring defense, Duke's 15.3 allowed. Miami's passing game drives it, with success on 54.4% of throws, first nationally, and 305 yards a game, fifth. The Duke defense allows 189 passing yards a game, sixth nationally, and stops 75.3% of the drives it faces, third.

Miami scores on 93.9% of red zone trips, 14th nationally, and Duke allows scores on 81.3%, 27th. Miami runs for 156 yards a game, 25th, into a Duke run defense allowing 113, 18th. Mark Fletcher Jr. leads Miami in rushing yards with 514 and 9 touchdowns, and Javian Mallory is a step behind at 509.

When Duke has the ball, its run game gains 168 yards a game against Power 4 opponents, 15th nationally. The Miami run defense allows 74 yards a game, third nationally, and success on 33.3% of runs, also third.

The air is friendlier for Duke. Miami allows 304 passing yards a game, 79th nationally and 17th in the ACC, and success on 45.3% of passes, 60th. Against top-25 offenses Wake Forest, North Carolina and Notre Dame, Miami went 2-1 and allowed success on 47.2% of snaps, against 38.4% in all its games. Duke succeeds on 46.4% of its passes, 16th nationally, and throws for 233 yards a game.

Walker Eget leads Duke in passing yards with 1,849, with 10 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and a 63% completion rate. Jonah Burton leads Duke in receiving yards with 351 on 26 catches, and tight end Jeremiah Hasley is second with 321 on 28.

Nate Sheppard is scoring at an FBS-best pace

Duke's Nate Sheppard leads FBS with 21 touchdowns from scrimmage and ranks second with 1,189 rushing yards. He leads the ACC with 17 rushing touchdowns on 191 carries and leads Duke with 32 catches. Sheppard is one of 5 FBS players with two 200-yard rushing games this season, and one of 5 with two or more rushing touchdowns in five games. Two more rushing touchdowns would give him 30 for his career.

Miami's offense leads FBS in scoring

In all games, Miami scores 45.0 points a game, the best in FBS and up from 30.9 last season. The Hurricanes gain 517.3 yards a game, best in the ACC and third in FBS. Darian Mensah ranks second in FBS with 28 touchdown passes and third with 30 total touchdowns, and he leads FBS with a 76.8% completion rate. Mensah has thrown a touchdown pass in 27 straight games.

Duke's defense, rebuilt and stingier

In all games, Duke allows 13.0 points a game, down from 29.4 last season and its stingiest average since 1962. That mark is the best in the ACC and fifth in FBS. Duke stops 79.0% of the drives it faces, also the best in the ACC and third in FBS. The 2025 Blue Devils went 9-5 while scoring 34.6 points a game.

Old ties on both sidelines

Manny Diaz was Miami's defensive coordinator in 2016-18 and its head coach from 2019 to 2021, and Saturday he brings Duke to Hard Rock Stadium. Mario Cristobal is 1-3 against Duke across stops at Florida International and Miami.

Mensah threw for 3,973 yards and 34 touchdowns at Duke in 2025, then transferred to Miami, where he leads the team in passing yards with 2,701 and has 2 interceptions. Duke returns none of its 2025 passing yards, and Eget arrived as a transfer with 3,058 of his own.

Cooper Barkate also left Duke for Miami after catching 72 passes for 1,106 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2025. Barkate is second on Miami in receiving yards with 464 on 38 catches and 6 touchdowns, and he has raised his total in 3 straight games, from 28 to 32, 71 and 92. Duke returns 20% of its 2025 receiving yards.

Duke cornerback Kimari Robinson grew up in Miramar, Fla., about 6 miles from Hard Rock Stadium.

Miami sent 9 players to the NFL, including 2 offensive tackles and 2 edge rushers, with 3 in the first two rounds. Francis Mauigoa went 10th overall to New York, Rueben Bain Jr. 15th to Tampa Bay and Akheem Mesidor 22nd to Los Angeles. Duke had 3 players drafted, none in the first two rounds, led by edge rusher Wesley Williams in the fourth round to Jacksonville.

Miami without its top receiver

Update, Sat, Nov 14, 9:00 AM CT: Miami lists Malachi Toney, CharMar Brown, Joshua Moore and 4 others as out or doubtful, and Zechariah Poyser as a game-time decision. Duke lists Patrick Smith-Young, Cosme Salas, Kavon Simmons and 10 others as out or doubtful.

Cristobal said Nov. 7 that Malachi Toney's ankle surgery went well and that his timeline is as soon as four to four-and-a-half weeks from the procedure, according to Yahoo Sports. Toney leads Miami in receiving yards with 1,027 and in catches with 73, and his 13 touchdown catches rank third in FBS.

Duke's Kevin O'Connor, who leads Duke with 4.5 sacks, had no stats in the 41-3 win at NC State. Robinson was listed Out on the ACC availability report for Duke's last 2 games, and receiver Kavon Simmons was listed Out for the NC State game. Kicker Cosme Salas and linebacker Elliott Schaper were listed Out for Duke's last 5 games, and defensive tackle David Anderson for the last 3.

Miami has owned it, but Duke won in 2022

Miami leads the series 16-5 since 1976 and is 15-4 against Duke as ACC opponents since 2005. That 2005 Miami team went 9-3, and Duke went 1-10.

Miami is 7-3 at home against Duke, and Duke last won in Miami Gardens in 2022, a 9-4 season for the Blue Devils and a 5-7 season for the Hurricanes.

Miami won the last meeting 53-31 at home in 2024, when Cam Ward threw for 400 yards. Ward won the Davey O'Brien and Manning awards that season and was an All-American with receiver Xavier Restrepo, as Miami went 10-3 and Duke 9-4.

Three things to watch

Third down: against Power 4 opponents, Miami converts 52.2%, second nationally, and Duke allows 28.1%, third.

Duke's path: the Blue Devils are +4 in turnover margin against Power 4 teams, second in the ACC, and average 12.1 yards on 9 punt returns, 12th nationally.

Elija Lofton: the Miami receiver had his first career 100-yard game last week, 113 yards at Notre Dame, after raising his total in 3 straight games.