No. 12 Kentucky hosts a sliding Vanderbilt

Kentucky wins tight, Vanderbilt loses big

Against Power 4 opponents, Vanderbilt is -71 in point margin, 78th nationally and 15th in the SEC. Kentucky is -8 in the same games, 37th nationally and 10th in the SEC, despite a 4-1 record against Power 4 teams. The four wins came by a combined 20 points, and the 45-17 loss to Alabama outweighs them.

Against Power 4 teams, Kentucky scores 27.8 points a game, 25th nationally, and allows 29.4, 46th. Vanderbilt scores 20.4 and allows 34.6, ranking 56th and 68th.

Against Power 4 opponents, the yardage is closer than the scoring. Vanderbilt gains 349 yards a game, 47th nationally, to Kentucky's 328, 52nd. Kentucky allows 396, 41st, and Vanderbilt allows 409, 51st.

Against Power 4 opponents, Kentucky is penalized 44 yards a game, 19th nationally and third in the SEC, while Vanderbilt gives up 69, 73rd. Kentucky returns punts for 12.2 yards on 5 returns, seventh nationally, and Vanderbilt allows 13.9 yards a punt return on 9 returns, 43rd.

Where it's decided

When Kentucky has the ball, it meets a run defense that ranks 15th in the SEC against Power 4 opponents, allowing 173 yards a game, 52nd nationally. Kentucky runs for 114 yards a game in those games, 51st nationally. CJ Baxter leads Kentucky in rushing yards with 484 and is tied for third in the SEC with 8 rushing touchdowns, and Jason Patterson adds 399. Kentucky returned 14% of its 2025 rushing yards, and Baxter arrived as a transfer who ran for 196 in 2025.

Against Power 4 opponents, Kentucky converts 28.6% on third down, 72nd nationally and 15th in the SEC. Vanderbilt's defense allows 50.0% on third down, 75th nationally and 16th in the SEC, so one side's weakness meets the other's.

Kenny Darby leads Kentucky in receiving yards with 436 and in catches with 34, with 3 touchdowns. Tight end Willie Rodriguez is second in receiving yards with 257 on 33 catches. Kentucky throws for 215 yards a game against Power 4 teams, 53rd nationally, and Vanderbilt allows 236, 36th. Safety CJ Heard leads Vanderbilt in tackles with 53, and linebacker Nick Rinaldi leads it in sacks with 3.

When Vanderbilt has the ball, it throws for 240 yards a game against Power 4 opponents, 37th nationally and eighth in the SEC. Kentucky allows 247 passing yards a game in those games, 46th nationally. Quarterback Jared Curtis leads Vanderbilt in passing yards with 1,242, with 6 touchdowns, 7 interceptions and a 62.7 completion percentage.

Junior Sherrill leads Vanderbilt in receiving yards with 628 and in catches with 41, with 4 touchdowns. His yardage ranks second in the SEC, and he needs 6 catches to reach 150 for his career.

Against Power 4 opponents, Vanderbilt converts 40.6% on third down, 33rd nationally, and Kentucky's defense allows 50.0%, 72nd. Kentucky also allows scores on 91.3% of opponents' red zone trips, 65th nationally, and Vanderbilt scores on 84.6% of its own, 40th. Vanderbilt runs for 110 yards a game, 53rd, against a Kentucky run defense allowing 149, 38th.

Sedrick Alexander leads Vanderbilt in rushing yards with 270 and has 5 touchdowns, and Makhilyn Young has 216. Linebacker Grant Godfrey leads Kentucky in tackles with 67, second in the SEC, and Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace leads it in sacks with 4.

Kentucky protects the ball, Vanderbilt does not

Against Power 4 opponents, Kentucky is +10 in turnover margin, third nationally and first in the SEC. Vanderbilt is -6, 85th nationally and 16th in the SEC. Kentucky has run 217 straight offensive plays without a turnover, since a lost fumble against South Alabama. Jordan Castell leads the SEC with 4 interceptions, and Kentucky teammate Ty Bryant is tied for second with 3.

Vanderbilt's scoring has fallen off

Vanderbilt scores 23.6 points a game in all games, down from 38.5 last season. It returned 5% of its 2025 passing yards, with Diego Pavia's 3,539 gone, and 56% of its rushing yards, a total that also lost Pavia's 862. Power 4 opponents have outscored Vanderbilt 66-21 in the second quarter this season. Since 2008, Vanderbilt is 32-0 when it scores 40 or more.

Kenny Minchey's rebuilt passing game

Kentucky returned 1% of its 2025 passing yards. Kenny Minchey, a 4-star transfer from Notre Dame, leads Kentucky in passing yards with 1,552, with 13 touchdowns, 1 interception and a 68.4 completion percentage. Kentucky scores 32.7 points a game in all games, up from 23.0 last season and its best scoring average since 2007.

Kentucky wins the close ones

Kentucky is 3-0 in one-score games this season and 2-0 in overtime games. Two of its wins came on a go-ahead 2-point conversion.

Coaches, transfers and draft losses

Will Stein coaches Kentucky and has never faced Vanderbilt in 1 season as an FBS head coach. Clark Lea coaches Vanderbilt.

Ja'Cory Thomas came to Vanderbilt from Old Dominion as a 4-star transfer and is second on the team in receiving yards, with 195 on 12 catches. He brought 714 of the 1,130 receiving yards from 2025 that transfers added to Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt also added tight end Jayvontay Conner from East Carolina, tackle Beau Johnson from North Dakota State and interior lineman Micah DeBose from Alabama.

Kentucky rebuilt its offensive line through the portal with three 4-star transfers: Coleton Price from Baylor, Lance Heard from Tennessee and Tegra Tshabola from Ohio State. Linebacker Elijah Barnes came from Texas, also as a 4-star transfer.

Kentucky had 4 players drafted, a guard, a center, a receiver and a running back, none in the first two rounds. Guard Jalen Farmer went in round 4 to Indianapolis, center Jager Burton and receiver Kendrick Law went in round 5 to Green Bay and Detroit, and running back Seth McGowan went in round 7 to Indianapolis. Vanderbilt had 1 player drafted, tight end Eli Stowers, who went to Philadelphia in round 2 at No. 54 overall.

Baxter Probable, Vanderbilt's list is long

Update, Sat, Oct 24, 5:00 PM CT: Kentucky lists Nic Anderson, Sam Greene, Antwan Smith and 3 others as out or doubtful, and Tyler Thomas and Cole Marszalek as game-time decisions. Vanderbilt lists Blaze Berlowitz, Brian Allen Jr., Josiah Broxton and 6 others as out or doubtful.

Kentucky running back CJ Baxter is listed Probable on the latest SEC report. He had no stats in last week's 21-13 win at Oklahoma.

Kentucky lists linebacker Antwan Smith and defensive backs Jaden Smith and Grant Grayton as Out. Linebacker Sam Greene and long snapper Cole Marszalek are new to the report as Doubtful, and receiver Nic Anderson and defensive end Tyler Thomas are Questionable. Thomas arrived as a transfer who had 3 tackles for loss and 2 sacks in 2025.

Vanderbilt lists eight players Out: quarterback Blaze Berlowitz, receiver Kahden Smith, offensive lineman Gunner Givens, defensive linemen Aaron Bryant and Nikhil Jefferson, EDGE Brian Allen Jr., linebacker Jamison Curtis and cornerback Jaylin Lackey. Linebacker Josiah Broxton is new on the report as Doubtful, and safeties Dontae Carter and Davin Chandler are Questionable, Chandler for the first time this week. Cornerback Cayden Daniels, offensive lineman Mitchell Smith and defensive lineman Hayden Bray are Probable.

Vanderbilt owns the most recent meeting

Kentucky leads the series 49-42-4 since 1906 in the games we hold. Vanderbilt won the last meeting 45-17 at home in 2025, when Diego Pavia threw for 484 yards.

That 2025 Vanderbilt team, the one that beat Kentucky by 28, went 10-3. Pavia won the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, and tight end Eli Stowers won the John Mackey Award and the William V. Campbell Trophy and was a unanimous All-American. Clark Lea is 3-2 against Kentucky.

Three things to watch

Kentucky's ball security: 217 straight plays without a turnover against a Vanderbilt team that is -6 in turnover margin against Power 4 opponents.

Vanderbilt's path through the air: Sherrill's 628 receiving yards and a 40.6% third-down rate against Power 4 teams meet a Kentucky defense allowing 50.0% on third down.

Ranked opponents at night: Vanderbilt has lost 9 of its last 10 night games against ranked teams, dating to 2018, and Lea is 6-20 against ranked teams, while Kentucky has won 4 straight night games, dating to 2025.