UCF hosts Baylor after toppling BYU

Baylor wins the margin, UCF wins the flags

Against Power 4 opponents, Baylor is +33 in point margin, 19th nationally and fifth in its conference. UCF is -13 in the same games, 37th nationally and ninth in its conference.

Baylor allows 18.2 points a game, 13th nationally, while UCF allows 25.0, 35th. Baylor gains 401 yards a game, 26th, and allows 382, 38th. UCF gains 328, 55th, and allows 368, 29th.

The quieter categories split. UCF is penalized 48 yards a game, 28th nationally, against 68 for Baylor, 69th. The Knights also hold the ball 29:05 a game to Baylor's 28:47. Baylor has the turnover edge at +4, 13th nationally, to UCF's +2, 22nd.

Where it's decided

When Baylor has the ball, it scores 24.8 points a game against Power 4 opponents, 37th nationally. Baylor scores on 72.7% of red zone trips, 71st nationally and 14th in the conference, and UCF's red zone defense ranks 13th nationally at 76.2%. Baylor's Rhett Armstrong ranks third in the Big 12 with 13 field goals. Baylor converts 36.7% on third down, 46th, against a UCF defense allowing 42.1%, 51st.

Baylor runs for 128 yards a game, 43rd, into a UCF run defense allowing 103, 12th nationally and second in the Big 12. Dawson Pendergrass leads Baylor in rushing yards with 332 on 93 carries, and Caden Knighten is second with 303. Quarterback DJ Lagway leads the Bears in passing yards with 1,352, with 9 touchdowns, 4 interceptions and a 52.1 completion percentage.

When UCF has the ball, it scores 22.4 points a game against Power 4 opponents, 51st nationally. The Knights score on 89.5% of red zone trips, 26th nationally and third in the conference, and Baylor's red zone defense allows 84.6%, 15th in the conference. Baylor's defense allows a 34.9% conversion rate on third down, 17th nationally, and 69.4% of the drives it faces end without a score, 15th nationally. UCF converts 39.1% of its third downs, 38th.

UCF runs for 96 yards a game, 63rd, into a Baylor run defense allowing 111, 20th nationally and third in the conference. Duke Watson, a transfer from Louisville, leads UCF in rushing yards with 577 on 85 carries and 3 touchdowns, and Taevion Swint is second with 162. The Knights returned 5% of their 2025 rushing yards, so the ground game is almost entirely new. Josh Derry leads UCF in receiving yards with 358 and in catches with 34.

Klanderman's first game in charge

Baylor fired Dave Aranda on Oct. 25, after a 4-3 start under him. Defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman is the interim head coach, and Friday is his first game in the role.

Baylor's defense, from 32.6 points to 16.1

In all games, Baylor allows 16.1 points a game, down from 32.6 last season and its stingiest average since 1995. That ranks third in the Big 12. The Bears have done it while facing 73.7 plays a game, the sixth-most in FBS.

Freeman against a middling pass defense

Baylor receiver Gavin Freeman ranks second in FBS with 58 catches, which also leads Baylor. He leads the Bears in receiving yards with 678, second in the Big 12. Freeman is a transfer, part of 766 receiving yards Baylor brought in after returning 11% of its 2025 total. Louis Brown IV is second on the team in receiving yards with 345 and has 3 touchdowns.

Against Power 4 opponents, Baylor throws for 273 yards a game, 14th nationally, and UCF allows 264 through the air, 64th.

Jenkins has thrown for more every week

UCF quarterback Keyone Jenkins has raised his passing yards in 5 straight games, from 42 to 86, 160, 253, 265 and 293 against BYU last week. He leads UCF in passing yards with 1,099, with 11 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and a 67.9 completion percentage. Tyren Hornes had his first career 100-yard receiving game against BYU, 137 yards, after a previous best of 34 against Houston this season. Hornes is now second on the team in receiving yards with 248.

A homecoming and two portal quarterbacks

Baylor linebacker Travion Barnes plays about 10 miles from his hometown of Altamonte Springs, and he leads the Bears with 48 tackles, with 3.5 tackles for loss.

DJ Lagway, a 4-star transfer from Florida, took over a Baylor offense that returned 1% of its 2025 passing yards after Sawyer Robertson's 3,681 left. UCF returned 0% of its 2025 passing yards and brought in Jenkins and Alonza Barnett III, a transfer from James Madison. Barnett needs 1 rushing touchdown to reach 25 for his career.

Baylor defensive end Garrick Ponder, a transfer from Southern Miss, leads the team with 3.5 sacks. UCF edge Isaiah Nixon leads the Knights with 2.5 sacks, and linebacker Tackett Curtis leads them in tackles with 42 and has 2 interceptions.

Baylor had 2 players drafted, a defensive tackle and a wide receiver, neither in the first two rounds. Defensive tackle Jackie Marshall went in the sixth round to Tennessee and receiver Josh Cameron in the sixth to Jacksonville. UCF had 1 player drafted, edge Malachi Lawrence, taken 23rd overall by Dallas.

Jenkins cleared, three Knights uncertain

Update, Fri, Oct 30, 5:00 PM CT: Since Thursday's report, UCF upgraded Ken Talley (probable to available), Sincere Edwards (probable to available), Jayden Jennings (probable to available), Duane Thomas Jr. (probable to available) and 3 others. Since Thursday's report, Baylor upgraded Dawson Pendergrass (probable to available) and Devon Jordan (probable to available). On the latest report, UCF lists Demari Henderson, Lewis Carter, Taevion Swint and 2 others as out or doubtful, and Alonza Barnett III and Caleb Rollerson as game-time decisions. Baylor lists Devonte Tezino, Ashton Jones, Cayden Tone and 2 others as out or doubtful.

Frost said Oct. 26 that Jenkins was evaluated for a concussion after the BYU game, cleared protocol Monday and will play and start Friday, according to ESPN.

Linebacker Lewis Carter is "getting really close" and will probably be a game-time decision, Frost said Oct. 27, according to the Orlando Sentinel. Carter has missed four games with an undisclosed lower-body injury, and Frost said that if he does not play Friday he is likely back next week.

Frost said the same day that running back Taevion Swint's practice injury was an old injury and he will be back quicker than expected, but that he did not know Swint's status this week. Swint was listed Out on the Big 12 availability report for the BYU game. Center Jacob Maiava, who missed the past two games with a lower-body injury, could return this week, Frost said.

Baylor holds two of three, one of them a UCF collapse

Baylor leads the series 2-1 since the 2014 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl. That 2014 Baylor team went 11-2, with Bryce Petty winning the Bobby Bowden Award and offensive lineman Spencer Drango an All-American, and UCF went 9-4.

Baylor won the last meeting 30-3 at home in 2025, and Sawyer Robertson threw for 267 yards. Both teams finished that season 5-7.

UCF lost to Baylor in 2023 after leading by 21 or more, the most recent of its 3 such losses since 2008. Baylor finished that 2023 season 3-9, and UCF finished 6-7.

Three things to watch

Jenkins against Baylor's pass defense: his 293 yards against BYU meet a unit allowing 271 passing yards a game against Power 4 opponents, 67th nationally.

Special teams: against Power 4 opponents, Baylor averages 29.6 yards a kick return on 5 returns and 14.0 a punt return on 10 returns, both fifth nationally, while UCF's kick coverage ranks first at 10.6 yards allowed on 5 returns.

UCF's path to keeping it close: the Knights are 2-1 in one-score games and score on 89.5% of red zone trips against Power 4 opponents.