THIRD AND DATA

Week 15 · 2025

Duke at #17 Virginia

Sat 12/06/2025 08:00 PMBank of America StadiumVirginia pregame60% — Pregame win probability: 60% for Virginia. Virginia favored, and lost — Duke won.Neutral site

37°Fog0 mph N · 89% humidityRecorded at kickoff by College Football Data

Duke

27

9–5

#17 Virginia

20

11–3

Attendance

41,672

reported

Passing

Duke1 unplaced1 interceptions, none of which the provider placed on the field
C. Barkate5 of 8N. Sheppard5 of 5J. Hasley3 of 4Other6 of 7
DeepShort
21.72.0
—
38.010.0
1.56.0
7.35.5
4.315.0
LeftMiddleRight
caughtincompleteyds/att · YAC/comp · boxed = best
Virginia2 unplaced1 interceptions, none of which the provider placed on the field
C. Ross5 of 8J. Taylor3 of 6H. Waylee2 of 5Other10 of 17Unattributed0 of 1
DeepShort
0.0
11.53.0
14.53.0
5.13.0
4.50.3
4.73.2
LeftMiddleRight
caughtincompleteyds/att · YAC/comp · boxed = best
Duke1 unplaced
DeepShort
67%2.69
—
100%2.66
25%0.07
67%1.41
40%1.95
LeftMiddleRight
successfulnotrate · explosiveness · boxed = best
Virginia2 unplaced
DeepShort
0%
50%2.07
50%2.77
43%1.17
33%2.31
42%0.88
LeftMiddleRight
successfulnotrate · explosiveness · boxed = best
Duke1 unplaced
DeepShort
65
—
38
6
44
43
LeftMiddleRight
area = yds · one scale for both teams
Virginia2 unplaced
DeepShort
0
23
29
36
27
90
LeftMiddleRight
area = yds · one scale for both teams
Duke1 unplaced
DeepShort
4.9
—
2.7
-1.3
5.7
3.6
LeftMiddleRight
area = points added · one scale for both teams
Virginia2 unplaced
DeepShort
-0.5
-1.8
2.1
-0.2
2.2
0.2
LeftMiddleRight
area = points added · one scale for both teams
Duke
DeepShort
61 · 4
—
28 · 10
-12 · 18
11 · 33
-62 · 105
LeftMiddleRight
airYACone scale for both teams
Virginia
DeepShort
— · —
20 · 3
26 · 3
24 · 12
26 · 1
58 · 32
LeftMiddleRight
airYACone scale for both teams

Rushing

Duke
N. Sheppard21A. Castle16D. Mensah3Other1Unattributed1
2.50%0%
3.817%63%
2.333%0%
LeftMiddleRight
carryyds/car · stuff · power · boxed = best (stuff: low wins)
Virginia
J. Taylor15H. Waylee11C. Morris2
4.70%0%
4.913%83%
4.00%0%
LeftMiddleRight
carryyds/car · stuff · power · boxed = best (stuff: low wins)
Duke
5
136
7
LeftMiddleRight
area = yds · one scale for both teams
Virginia
14
112
8
LeftMiddleRight
area = yds · one scale for both teams
Duke
-2.0
5.3
-0.2
LeftMiddleRight
area = points added · one scale for both teams
Virginia
0.4
7.9
-0.2
LeftMiddleRight
area = points added · one scale for both teams
Duke
5 · 0 · 0
108 · 24 · 9
6 · 1 · 0
LeftMiddleRight
OLRB 5–10RB 10+one scale for both teams
Virginia
12 · 3 · 0
70 · 23 · 24
8 · 0 · 0
LeftMiddleRight
OLRB 5–10RB 10+one scale for both teams

Previous 11 meetings vs. Duke

Virginia 9–2 vs Duke

  • 2025 · wk 12Virginia 34 @ Duke 17
  • 2023 · wk 12Duke 27 @ Virginia 30
  • 2022 · wk 5Virginia 17 @ Duke 38
  • 2021 · wk 7Duke 0 @ Virginia 48
  • 2020 · wk 4Duke 20 @ Virginia 38
  • 2019 · wk 8Duke 14 @ Virginia 48
  • 2018 · wk 8Virginia 28 @ Duke 14
  • 2017 · wk 6Duke 21 @ Virginia 28
  • 2016 · wk 5Virginia 34 @ Duke 20
  • 2015 · wk 12Duke 34 @ Virginia 42
  • 2014 · wk 8Virginia 13 @ Duke 20

Previous 3 meetings vs. Tony Elliott

Duke 1–2 vs Tony Elliott

  • 2025 · wk 12Virginia 34 @ Duke 17
  • 2023 · wk 12Duke 27 @ Virginia 30
  • 2022 · wk 5Virginia 17 @ Duke 38

Previous 4 meetings vs. Manny Diaz

Virginia 2–2 vs Manny Diaz

  • 2025 · wk 12Virginia 34 @ Duke 17
  • 2021 · wk 5 (coaching change that season)Virginia 30 @ Miami 28
  • 2020 · wk 8Virginia 14 @ Miami 19
  • 2019 · wk 7Virginia 9 @ Miami 17

† That school changed coaches during the season and the loader cannot say which games he took.

Research

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