THIRD AND DATA

Week 8 · 2026

Duke at Virginia

Fri 10/23/2026 07:00 PMScott StadiumVirginia pregame67% — Pregame win probability: 67% for Virginia. Virginia favored, and lost — Duke won.Conference

55°Partly Cloudy0 mph N · 62% humidityMeasured at kickoff, by an official weather station

Duke

19

6–2

Virginia

16

4–5

Attendance

—

not yet reported

Passing

Duke1 unplaced1 interceptions, none of which the provider placed on the field
DeepShort
8.82.0
—
19.71.0
10.09.3
4.00.0
6.73.4
LeftMiddleRight
caughtincompleteyds/att · YAC/comp · boxed = best
Virginia1 unplaced1 interceptions, none of which the provider placed on the field
DeepShort
25.02.0
—
9.03.0
6.84.8
3.83.0
5.83.3
LeftMiddleRight
caughtincompleteyds/att · YAC/comp · boxed = best
Duke1 unplaced
DeepShort
25%2.56
—
67%2.21
60%1.70
33%0.43
47%1.30
LeftMiddleRight
successfulnotrate · explosiveness · boxed = best
Virginia1 unplaced
DeepShort
100%1.02
—
33%1.35
33%1.54
40%1.30
50%1.05
LeftMiddleRight
successfulnotrate · explosiveness · boxed = best
Duke1 unplaced
DeepShort
35
—
59
50
12
100
LeftMiddleRight
area = yds · one scale for both teams
Virginia1 unplaced
DeepShort
25
—
27
41
19
46
LeftMiddleRight
area = yds · one scale for both teams
Duke1 unplaced
DeepShort
0.5
—
3.4
3.8
-1.0
3.6
LeftMiddleRight
area = points added · one scale for both teams
Virginia1 unplaced
DeepShort
1.0
—
0.5
2.3
-0.3
2.4
LeftMiddleRight
area = points added · one scale for both teams
Duke
DeepShort
33 · 2
—
57 · 2
13 · 37
12 · 0
69 · 31
LeftMiddleRight
airYACone scale for both teams
Virginia
DeepShort
23 · 2
—
24 · 3
17 · 24
13 · 6
26 · 20
LeftMiddleRight
airYACone scale for both teams

Rushing

Duke
N. Sheppard15C. Campbell1D. Mahan1
-2.550%0%
6.17%0%
-4.0100%0%
LeftMiddleRight
carryyds/car · stuff · power · boxed = best (stuff: low wins)
Virginia
J. Middlebrook24B. Pribula16X. Davis5Other3
2.633%0%
5.213%40%
4.957%100%
LeftMiddleRight
carryyds/car · stuff · power · boxed = best (stuff: low wins)
Duke
-5
85
-4
LeftMiddleRight
area = yds · one scale for both teams
Virginia
23
165
34
LeftMiddleRight
area = yds · one scale for both teams
Duke
-1.4
1.3
-0.5
LeftMiddleRight
area = points added · one scale for both teams
Virginia
-1.5
3.3
-1.4
LeftMiddleRight
area = points added · one scale for both teams
Duke
-6 · 0 · 0
49 · 18 · 24
-5 · 0 · 0
LeftMiddleRight
OLRB 5–10RB 10+one scale for both teams
Virginia
13 · 5 · 7
112 · 47 · 22
17 · 10 · 10
LeftMiddleRight
OLRB 5–10RB 10+one scale for both teams

Previous 10 meetings vs. Duke

Virginia 8–2 vs Duke

  • 2025 · wk 15Duke 27 @ Virginia 20
  • 2025 · wk 12Virginia 34 @ Duke 17
  • 2023 · wk 12Duke 27 @ Virginia 30
  • 2022 · wk 5Virginia 17 @ Duke 38
  • 2021 · wk 7Duke 0 @ Virginia 48
  • 2020 · wk 4Duke 20 @ Virginia 38
  • 2019 · wk 8Duke 14 @ Virginia 48
  • 2018 · wk 8Virginia 28 @ Duke 14
  • 2017 · wk 6Duke 21 @ Virginia 28
  • 2016 · wk 5Virginia 34 @ Duke 20

Previous 4 meetings vs. Tony Elliott

Duke 2–2 vs Tony Elliott

  • 2025 · wk 15Duke 27 @ Virginia 20
  • 2025 · wk 12Virginia 34 @ Duke 17
  • 2023 · wk 12Duke 27 @ Virginia 30
  • 2022 · wk 5Virginia 17 @ Duke 38

Previous 5 meetings vs. Manny Diaz

Virginia 2–3 vs Manny Diaz

  • 2025 · wk 15Duke 27 @ Virginia 20
  • 2025 · wk 12Virginia 34 @ Duke 17
  • 2021 · wk 5 (coaching change that season)Virginia 30 @ Miami 28
  • 2020 · wk 8Virginia 14 @ Miami 19
  • 2019 · wk 7Virginia 9 @ Miami 17

† That school changed coaches during the season and the loader cannot say which games he took.

Research

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