Analysis

Win probability

Diverging around 50 % — the neutral midpoint is grey, so 'nobody is favoured' reads as nothing rather than as a color.

No source yet

The curve below is synthetic — a rendering reference, not data. Real win probability needs play-by-play, which the loader does not ingest yet. It is shown so the chart conventions are settled before the numbers arrive; it is labelled rather than quietly passed off as real.

Rendering reference

Synthetic data

0255075100Q1Q2Q3Q421%Win probability
HOME favouredAWAY favoured

What is needed

To make this real

An ingest-plays job

Land raw play-by-play, transform to core.play, then a mart aggregate carrying one win-probability point per play. The chart component is already written against that shape.